Gambler's fallacy
Also called: Due for a win
Believing that past random results change the odds of the next one.
How to spot it
Are the events independent, such as coin tosses, but treated as if they balance out?
Example
“It's come up red six times, so black is due.”
How to answer it
Independent events have no memory. Each toss is a fresh one.
Related
- Post hoc: Assuming that because one thing followed another, the first caused the second.
- Hasty generalization: Drawing a broad conclusion from too few or unrepresentative examples.